Demographic Doom
Why the World is Falling Apart


A Philosophy Project by Glenn Campbell


Welcome to my  Demographic Doom  project.

I'm Glenn Campbell. I call myself a “demographic philosopher.” I'm looking at life and trying to predict the future through the lens of demography, or the study of human populations. I'm trying to view the world from the widest possible angle, as aliens would see us from space, so I am interested mainly in what large groups of people are doing, rather than individuals.

There are four main components to this project:

  1. A Podcast, available as audio-only YouTube videos and on major podcast platforms such as Apple and PodBean. This is opportunity for me to express my views on demography, economics, the future of the family and the current collapse of civilization. The latest episodes are scripted, with the scripts available on the Blog. This podcast started in September 2019. This podcast is now on hiatus starting June 2020, so I can work on a manuscript instead.

  2. A book manuscript, Post-Nuclear: How to Reinvent the Family and Save Humanity - now being written. After several false starts, I began writing a new book starting on June 27, 2020. New chapters are posted to Facebook as I write them. (Eventually they will be formatted into a proper manuscript, but Facebook is the easiest way to release it right now.) Currently available chapters:


    Every chapter is subject to revision.

  3. A DemographicDoom Twitter Feed of relevant references as I find them. This is essentially my personal filing cabinet of important articles and references, and it has become very complex. See my explanation and rules for this account. Through a system of private "#dd_" hashtags, all past posts can be retrieved by subject and source. (Note: When you click on a hashtag, be sure to also click on the "Latest" tab for a complete listing in proper order.)

  4. Live Action Videos filmed around the world in 2019. These videos are the precursor to my podcast and integrate with it. Since I traveled a lot in 2019, I recorded these videos wherever I happened to be—including New Zealand, the Canary Islands, England, Latvia, Estonia and many places in the USA. They were simply talking videos, however, and producing the visual component became too burdensome. Starting Sept. 2019, I started producing audio-only podcasts instead, so I could spend more time on content and less on production.

There are also several forms of supporting media:

  1. An Instagram account for graphs, videos and other visual media. This account has originally accessed though hashtags, like my main Twitter account, but they become too much work. I may occasionally posts new material here, but without hashtags.

  2. A supplemental Twitter account for the maintenance and cross-referencing of hashtags. This account is boring, and direct following is not recommended. It's main purpose is the help you find related hashtags when you click on the hashtags on the main account.

  3. A Facebook page providing notifications of new podcasts and other major additions. "Like" this page to be notified on Facebook of new content. No original material is posted here, only notice of new podcast episodes.

  4. A Blog where podcasts scripts are posted, along with other essays or definitions that are longer than a tweet. This is a continuation of my personal philosophy blog started in 2008.

Historical Videos

Since my project began in November 2016, it has gone through an evolutionary process, which can be traced through my past videos. My positions reached a stable state in January 2019, when I created the Demographic Doom video channel. Before that, I produced about 9 videos on my personal channel. I may not agree with these videos today, but they show the evolution of my thinking.
  1. My first known demographic video was Why Democracy is Collapsing (6 min) released on July 29, 2016. Donald Trump is the subject, although he isn't explicitly mentioned. Even though his election seemed unlikely at the time, I was disturbed enough by his nomination to believe that democracy's days were numbered. I sought an explanation for his rise to power, and I thought I found it in the "dumbing down" of society due to the Darwinian effects of birth control.

  2. My demographic project was "born" with the election of Trump on Nov. 8, 2016, when I began to seek answers as to why and how it happened. In November 2016, I quickly released a series of four videos as the Demographic Timebomb series. The initial focus was on the alleged Darwinian de-evolution of society, due to the assumption that "stupid" people have more kids than "smart" ones, especially since the advent of birth control in the 1960s. Unfortunately, this theory didn't hold water for the election of Trump himself, since his voters tended to be older, born in the pre-birth control era.

  3. In Nov. 2016, I was influenced by Demographic Winter (2 hour-long videos from 2008) and other videos and books on demographic decline.

  4. I changed my direction in November 2016 in the last video in the Timebomb series, The Global Fertility Crisis (9 min), when I realized the real crisis was not so much the quality of the population but its sheer quantity, or lack thereof. I had grown up thinking the world was facing a "population explosion," but I quickly learned that the opposite was now the case.

  5. between Dec. 2016 and March 2017, I filmed a new series of five videos as The Baby Bomb series, filmed in Norway, France and various locations in the USA. Although it covers some of the same topics as my later podcast and videos, it was not as well thought out, and I abandoned it.

  6. On 11 July 2018, a few days after learning I had massive cancer, I recorded a 1½ hour video summarizing my Demographic Doom project, thinking it might be my last.

  7. After a five-month hiatus for cancer treatment (and complete remission), I came up with a new name for my project, Demographic Doom, and started the new Demographic Doom YouTube channel in January 2019. Initially, I produced live-action videos but switched to a podcast format in September 2019 because podcasts are easier to produce.

Inactive Sections

The following sections and services are features I created since Nov. 2016 but eventually abandoned as too unweildy. Although I no longer maintain these sections, they may contain some useful information.
  1. Glossary of Demographic Terms - Dozen's of terms defined and annotated on a single big page.

  2. List of References before April 2019 — Before my Twitter account, I tried to add all new references to a single massive page, organized by subject. (You can see that Twitter is a lot easier.)

  3. YouTube playlists (partial index) - Before 2020, As I discovered new videos on demographic topics, I would add them to YouTube playlists of third-party videos. There are playlists on countries and topics, but they are no longer maintained. I may still add videos to old playlists, but I now use my Twitter to record and organize videos, just like I do for print references. Most new videos on my Twitter use the hashtag #dd_video.

  4. I have two one-page essays on economic collapse, written in December 2018. These essays are in the format used for my early philosophy series, Kilroy Cafe.

  5. In early 2019, I tried to maintain a page of Key Findings in my demographic research, no longer maintained.

  6. The Demographic Doom Blog was active only in July and August 2019, with four entries. It has since been replaced by my personal Bad Words, starting in Feb. 2019.

  7. My Demographic Doom Instagram account used to be indexed by hashtags, just like my Twitter account. Here is a partial list of some of the hashtags. While I still add posts to this account, I no longer try to index them because it is too much work.
    • On the Instagram account, I used to post one-minute excerpts of each of my videos and podcasts. I gave up on this after Episode 40 because it was too much work.

  8. I had a Demographic Comedy Page of cartoons and videos. You can now find demographic comedy at #dd_comedy and #ddoom_comedy on Twitter at #ddoom_comedy on Instagram.

  9. Revision Timeline ó Before July 2019, I tried to keep track of all major website changes and new videos on a single timeline page. It became too burdensome, and the same function is now provided by Twitter.

Major Issues

In this project I explore several major issues:
  • The lack of babies in the developed world. While population is still exploding in a few places in Africa, it is on the verge of implosion almost everywhere else. In the developed world, parenthood has fallen out of favor, and most countries are not producing enough babies to maintain their populations. Outside of Africa, any countries that not already falling in population soon will be. This will have devastating economic effects. Many promises and plans made when population was rising can no longer be fulfilled.

    Under construction on April 30





Explore This Website

Original YouTube Videos - Glenn's original videos on demographic topics. Overview Video
. Many relevant videos here, but starting September 2019, most new topics are covered in the Podcast
Manuscript: The Modular Family: Redesigning How Children Are Raised - Glenn Campbell presents a new family structure intended to locally address humanity's demographic crisis.
Demographic Doom Podcast with Glenn Campbell, discussing topics related to our coming doom and eventual resurrection, including demography, economics and all the complicated issues involved in raising children. Hosted at PodBean and available on iTunes, Spotify, CastBox, Google Play and Player.FM and other indexes. Also available as a YouTube video series.
Indexed References via Twitter - Relevant news articles and other print references as I find them, updated almost every day and indexed via exclusive hashtags. The Twitter account is highly active (many posts a day).
YouTube Playlists - Glenn's playlists of other people's videos, organized by topic. Partially indexed on the the playlists page
Instagram - Video excerpts, graphs and other visual support materials, indexed via exclusive hashtags. Moderately active (about one post a day).
Facebook Page - Announcing new videos and major project events (low activity)
Glenn Campbell's Main Website - Links to all of his works and data.
Contact - Your feedback and advice are encouraged.

Obsolete but Useful

Sections that are no longer maintained....
Glossary - Key demographic terms explained in text and short videos. Includes both generally accepted terms and term I have created.
Structured References - Selected news articles and other references on demography and economic collapse, arranged by subject. (No longer maintained. Replaced by a Twitter-based system below.)
Comedy - Demographic humor in videos and cartoons.
Prehistoric Essays & Videos - Glenn's earlier essays and videos on demographic issues, not necessarily consistent with his current views.
Key Findings - A summary of the Demographic Doom thesis, as bullet points.














If you were an alien approaching Earth, the first questions you might ask are:
  • What is the dominant life form?
  • How many of them are there?
  • How do they reproduce?
  • Where is their population headed?
If you scanned Earth now, you would see that humans control the planet; they reproduce sexually, and there are about 8 billion of them. If you looked closer, however, you would see these creatures are in deep trouble. While humans continue to reproduce, they are doing it haphazardly, and they are failing their children in significant ways.

Among other things, they are not producing enough offspring to maintain their civilization. The humans that remain are getting statistically older, and there are fewer young people to support them. With fewer people working and paying taxes, heavily indebted governments will go even deeper into hock until widespread default is inevitable.

And those are only the short term effects. In the long term, there are serious problems with the distribution of talent on Planet Earth and the quality of human reproduction. These are complicated issues, which is why I need to write a book and assemble a multi-page website. My conclusion: Thanks to demographic imbalances, civilization is due for collapse.

Our demographic crisis will become acute within the next decade with a massive economic crisis I call the Great Reversal. The world must readjust itself from population-fueled growth to permanent contraction. Unable to support any additional debt, big governments like the United States will collapse. It may not mean the end of our species, but we will be forced to dramatically restructure ourselves. Power will shift to local fiefdoms, like Europe after the Fall of Rome.



Introduction

Below is the introduction from a book manuscript that I eventually abandoned.

Bad times are coming to Planet Earth, and there is little we can do to stop them. You may already be worried about climate change, drug-resistant disease, nuclear proliferation, killer asteroids and the decline of global democracy, but they are not the worst news right now. The really bad stuff is demographic, meaning it involves human populations and how they evolve over time.

The 1960s gave us the population explosion, the idea that the growing number of humans on Earth is far outstripping our natural resources. It was a simple concept everyone could believe in, but it was obsolete from the time it was conceived. Apart from a few isolated Third World countries, the overpopulation threat has passed thanks to two other products of the 60s: birth control and womenís liberation. Today, most countries are closer to a population implosion, where births are insufficient to replace deaths. While reducing births was relatively easy, encouraging people to have more children seems nearly impossible, at least within current social and governmental structures.

Our demographic problems today are not simply a matter of explosion or implosion. Simultaneously, we are suffering from too many children, not enough of them and not the right kind. When the children grow up, they are not staying where they were born but are migrating to places where they can get the best deal, depleting the talent of their home communities. Meanwhile, poorly equipped parents are producing the most offspring, while the better educated and most materially successful are sitting on the sidelines. Over time, this leads to a change in the quality of the population.

All of these processes, taken together, are propelling us into a set of economic and political disasters I call Demographic Doom. Thanks to population changes over the past half century, everything is falling apart simultaneously: economics, politics, infrastructure and human capital. It is like Earth being hit by an asteroid, except this crisis is entirely internal, caused solely by births, deaths and migration.

Our impending storm is largely the product of two innovations in the 20th Century that seemed good at the time but that have turned out to be highly disruptive. One was the development of modern medicine and sanitation, which began to seriously save lives only after World War I. The resulting reduction in child mortality had the unfortunate effect of triggering a global population explosion. The other innovation was the legalization of the birth control pill in the 1960s. This set us up for a population implosion. It also changed the profile of who was having children, as career-minded women put off childbearing.

Only a handful of Third World countries, mainly in Africa, are still experiencing a population explosion, with 5 or more babies born to an average woman. Most other countries have begun a slow collapse, where not enough children are being produced to sustain the local workforce. This happens when the number of babies produced by an average woman falls below replacement fertility, defined in most countries as 2.1 live births per female. If fertility in your country lingers below 2.1 and you donít make up the difference through immigration, eventually your population will shrink.

So whatís the big deal? It is hard to deny that the planet as a whole is overpopulated. Earthís population has soared from 1.5 billion in 1900 to roughly 8 billion today. Homo sapiens are cutting down rainforests, polluting oceans and spewing out carbon emissions. Who could object to bringing down their numbers?

Thatís where things get complicated. While we can rationally argue that the planet would be better off with, say, 5 billion people instead of 8, there is no painless way to get there. Our current world economy is built on the assumption of unlimited population growth. If growth slows and reverses, suddenly we have a growing number of old people and shrinking pool of active workers to support them. If the workforce shrinks, tax revenues will, too, and many nations will be unable to pay the interest on their preexisting debt. The can only result in default by the most indebted governments, including the United States. This, in turn, assures an epic economic crash like the world has never seen.

Demographic Doom means the collapse of big governments and the economic institutions we have built our lives on. Chaos will rule our society, much like a state of war, until we build new institutions to replace the ones that failed.

 



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